#161: Avoid your own recession

Last week I warned you about self-fulfilling prophecies and over-reacting to predictions of a recession. So, how should you plan your life or your business based on what you hear about the future?

Plan in terms of predetermined events, key uncertainties and surprise-free outcomes.

Consider this example: For people who live on the banks of rivers, any cloudburst over the Blue Ridge mountains is a predetermined event. They know that the rivers will flood, that’s a surprise-free outcome. The key uncertainty is how deep.

Here’s how it works. You cannot act according to key uncertainties because you don’t have enough information. But you can act according to surprise-free outcomes. And you can monitor key uncertainties. In other words, get ready for a flood and keep your eye on the level.

Plan this way and you will be prepared for a recession without putting yourself or your business into its own recession.


I’m james@nonsenseatwork.com

Copyright: 2007 James Henry McIntosh

James can be heard on Public Radio, 88.9 FM WCVE, Richmond VA.
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